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First Rate
[September/October 2003]

Upside-Downside

Samplings of what analysts are saying about Thornburg Mortgage:

Credit Suisse First Boston

Rating: OUTPERFORM (7/23/03)

“While margins should be modestly lower going forward (owing to higher debt costs), this should be offset somewhat by higher equity leverage inherent in TMA’s balance sheet. In addition, the recent securitization and debt offering has reduced the percentage of assets funded with recourse debt, thereby reducing the probability of a margin call should interest rates move against them significantly.”

A.G. Edwards

Rating: HOLD (7/23/03)

“We continue to rate TMA shares a ‘Hold’ for aggressive investors, as we believe that its current stock price effectively discounts much of the cyclical improvement in the earnings power driven by the record mortgage refinancing boom. We anticipate Thornburg’s business model to perform in the near term, as the operating environment for mortgage lenders remains relatively favorable. However, we believe that the probability of material deterioration in the mortgage lending environment continues to rise due to the recent increase in long-term interest rates.”

Value Line

Rating: Above Average (7/25/03)

“We look for profits to hold more or less steady in 2004. The company seems to have considerable capital at its disposal. Visibility for asset purchases is much more limited, though. Even if asset growth were to stall, Thornburg’s hedging program should provide some cover for earnings once interest rates finally begin rising.”

U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray

Rating: Outperform (7/24/03)

“We believe Thornburg provides an attractive total return for investors, with projected dividend income and our $28 price target providing a total return potential of 23 percent from current levels. TMA minimizes interest rate risk and takes little credit risk, as it primarily matches floating rate debt with adjustable rate mortgages; 92 percent of its portfolio is in high quality U.S. securities rated AA or better.”


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