UPSIDE-DOWNSIDE
Samplings of what analysts are saying about Federal Realty Investment Trust
Legg Mason
Rating: BUY (11/4/04)
12-Month Projected Target Price: $51.00
"The FRT model continues to provide mall-like results. Unlike any of its strip shopping center peers, FRT’s spreads on re-leasing and incremental occupancy are in solid double digits. We believe its strategy, focusing on properties in densely populated and high-income areas, will continue to produce above-average operating results."
Merrill Lynch
Rating: BUY (11/5/04)
12-Month Projected Target Price: $53.00
"We continue to believe that FRT’s shopping center portfolio is well insulated from the growing threat of supercenters (both Wal-Mart and target) given that the majority of its assets are located in high density markets with well above average median household incomes. As a result, we believe FRT’s portfolio can continue to generate industry leading NOI growth in the neighborhood of 3 percent to 3.5 percent for the next several years."
UBS Securities
Rating: reduce (11/4/04)
12-month Projected Target Price: $45.00
"FRT trades at 16x our 2005 FFO per share estimate of $3.05, a 17 percent premium to its peers. Assuming FRT trades at 13.6x our 2006 FFO per share estimate of $3.29, our 12-month price target increases $2 to $45. While a premium valuation for FRT is warranted given the superior quality of its assets, we currently believe the stock is overvalued."
RBC Capital Markets
Rating: SECTOR PERFORM (11/4/04)
12-month Projected Target Price: $51.00
"In our view, FRT is more likely to convert and sell internally than sell units to a third-party condo converter. With average home prices up over 20 percent year over year in the San Francisco Bay Area and an absence of comparable quality condominium product in the Santana Row vicinity, we believe FRT could fetch $600,000 to $800,000 per unit."