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Three Up, Three Down: Sector Performance
[September/October 2005]

So many retail REIT strengths and weaknesses are general and cannot be divvied as exclusive to malls, shopping centers and freestanding stores. But here is a quick glance at some subsector-specific issues to be mindful of in the coming months.

Regional Malls
Up: Regional malls are doing more than providing a shopping venue, but rather, a shopping experience, one that indelibly influences the positive return of the sector. "I think the experience received when going to the mall definitely has some impact on the retail REIT performance," says Frankel of Moody's. "It's such a destination place, you can go to the movies, you can do a little shopping. It's quite feasible indeed this uniquely impacts performance.

Down: In a nutshell—too much of a good thing could potentially be a concern for regional mall business, as shoppers continue to spend money the do not have. Legg Mason's Fick says consumer spending averages 130 percent of wages and relies heavily on debt.

"To the consumer, going to the mall represents things that are just wants, as opposed to needs," Frankel says.

Shopping Centers
Up: A strong demand for sales space means shopping centers could soon see regional mall tenants coming their way, says Matthew Ostrower of Morgan Stanley, especially as space is hard to come by in regional malls. "Some people think 'oh my goodness, the retailers are looking outside of the malls, what does it mean?'" Ostrower says. "But they're looking elsewhere because the malls are filled up."

Down: Instability of a shopping center's anchor store is detrimental to the vendors, and the industry, as a whole. With serious competition from Wal-Mart, this subsector has to remain vigilant. "You have to keep shopping centers and their anchors updated, refreshed and user-friendly. If one of the shopping-center anchors goes dark, you have a problem," Frankel says.

Free-Standing Retail
Up: The triple-net leases freestanding REITs frequently provide are sometimes as long as 15 years according to Frankel. "Having such a long lease generates a consistent cash flow."

Down: Those same long-term leases could prove to be a double-edged sword for increasing profit. "A triple-net lease company cannot take advantage of the market if interest rates and market rent rise significantly, because the leases are locked-in for such long periods," Frankel says.


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