CANADA
By Mark Rothschild
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For many things in Canada, it is often tough to escape the shadow of its neighbor to the south. Canada's population of approximately 33 million people is approximately 10 percent of the U.S., and many view the Canadian real estate market in that same context—noteworthy, but not on the scale of the U.S. While that is true from a sheer numbers point of view, the Canadian REIT market has undergone its own unheralded run of stellar performance in recent years.
Canadian REITs have out-performed major indices for the past five years, and are poised to outperform again in 2005. For the five-year period ending Dec. 31, 2004, Canadian REITs averaged a total return of approximately 20 percent.
Established in 1993, the Canadian REIT market has grown to contain 26 companies with an equity market capitalization exceeding C$20 billion (U.S. $16.4 billion). There are Canadian REITs focused on almost every property type including retail, office, industrial, residential, hotel and health care.
Canadian REITs differ from U.S. REITs in that they must be trusts rather than a choice in the U.S. of trusts or corporations. Provided they distribute to unit holders their taxable net income, they are not taxable at the entity level. Recent legislation in Ontario extended limited liability to many Canadian REITs, removing what was a significant concern to many investors. This legislation was followed by the recent announcement from Standard & Poor's that it would add income trusts to its Canadian indices. Several Canadian REITs should qualify for inclusion to the main S&P TSX Index, thus creating additional demand for their units/shares.
RioCan is Canada's largest REIT with a market cap of C$4 billion (U.S. $3.3 billion). It owns a 30 million square feet portfolio of retail real estate, and some of its shopping centers are owned in a joint venture with Kimco Realty Corporation (NYSE: KIM). H&R REIT and Calloway REIT are other significant players with market caps exceeding C$2 billion. H&R focuses on single-tenant commercial properties with long term leases, and typically matches its leases with long-term fixed rate debt, creating a bond-like portfolio. Calloway REIT has been one of the most spectacular growth stories in the past few years and currently owns a 20 million square foot portfolio of primarily Wal-Mart anchored new format shopping centers.
The dynamics in the Canadian commercial real estate market are being noticed by U.S. REITs as well. Historically, U.S. REITs have not invested in Canada, Kimco being the most significant exception. Kimco has acquired a number of shopping centers in a joint venture with RioCan. With the increased globalization of REITs, we expect U.S. REITs to enter the Canadian market in a much larger way in the next few years. ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) recently announced the acquisition of land in the Toronto area where it plans to develop 1.75 million square feet of industrial space. Alexandria Real Estate Equities. Inc. (NYSE: ARE), The Mills Corporation (NYSE: MLS), Capital Automotive REIT (Nasdaq: CARS) and Entertainment Property Trust (NYSE: EPR) have also made deals north of the border.
Canadian Apartment REIT provides an opportunity for a large U.S. residential REIT or another institutional buyer to acquire a portfolio of more than 23,000 rental units in a market where the vacancy rates are lower than in most American markets. Summit REIT owns a portfolio of industrial real estate exceeding 29 million square feet. While Summit currently trades at 10 times 2005 FFO per unit/share, the average U.S. industrial REIT trades at 14.4 times 2005 FFO per share.
| S N A P S H O T |
CAPITAL: Ottawa
LAND AREA: 9,093,507 sq km
POPULATION: 32.81 million (July 2005)
POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 0.9%
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP): $856.5 billion (2003)
GDP GROWTH RATE: 2.0%
GDP PER CAPITA: $24,470
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.0% (2004)
MAIN INDUSTRIES: Transportation equipment, chemicals, processed and unprocessed minerals, food products; wood and paper products; fish products, petroleum and natural gas.
CURRENCY: Canadian dollar
LANGUAGES: English and French
Source: CIA's “The World Factbook” and the World Bank Group's “World Development
Indicators Database.”
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Canadian Companies
in the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index
(Ranked by free float adjusted equity market cap in millions of U.S. dollars) |
| Company |
Ticker Symbol |
Equity Market Cap |
Free Float Range |
Adjusted Market Cap |
| Brookfield Properties Corporation |
BPO |
$6,990.8 |
75 |
$5,243.1 |
| RioCan REIT |
REI |
3,349.1 |
100 |
3,349.1 |
| H&R REIT |
HR |
1,719.5 |
100 |
1,719.5 |
| Summit REIT |
SMU |
1,113.5 |
100 |
1,113.5 |
| Canadian REIT |
REF |
918.2 |
100 |
918.2 |
 |
| Boardwalk Equities Inc. |
BEI |
791.0 |
100 |
791.0 |
| Retirement Residences REIT |
RRR |
714.9 |
100 |
714.9 |
| O&Y REIT |
OYR |
713.2 |
75 |
534.9 |
| Calloway REIT |
CWT |
707.7 |
100 |
707.7 |
| Canadian Apartment Properties REIT |
CAR |
614.8 |
100 |
614.8 |
| Legacy Hotels REIT |
LGY |
521.1 |
100 |
521.1 |
| Cominar REIT |
CUF |
504.3 |
100 |
504.3 |
| Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT |
CSH |
485.2 |
100 |
485.2 |
| InnVest REIT |
INN |
474.6 |
100 |
474.6 |
| Primaris Retail REIT |
PMZ |
410.4 |
100 |
410. |
| Dundee Real Estate Investment Trust |
D |
384.3 |
100 |
384.3 |
| Canadian Hotel Income Properties REIT |
HOT |
369.4 |
75 |
277.0 |
| Source: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index. Data as of Aug. 1, 2005. |
What's Next For Canadian REITs?
With cap rates at historically low levels, many Canadian REITs are slowing down their pace of acquisitions and expanding their development pipelines. We are seeing an increase in joint ventures as REITs look to grow cash flow through management fees. It is interesting to note that some of these strategies are similar to what U.S. REITs have been doing for several years.
The increase in development is not of great concern, as most REITs remain disciplined. There is almost no significant office development without substantial pre-leasing. This discipline is enforced through high-payout ratios which do not allow for major investments that do not produce cash flow immediately. In fact, historically, Canadian REITs were discouraged from pursuing any development internally. A large portion of the units/shares of Canadian REITs is owned by funds which cater to retail investors. These funds are primarily yield driven and pay a dividend monthly.
With yield a significant factor, long-term interest rates are a key variable in the valuation of Canadian REITs.
We believe that going forward Canadian REITs will be evaluated on a more global scale. There has been an increase in global real estate funds which are not constrained to any one market. These funds are evaluating Canadian REITs alongside U.S. REITs and other real estate investments across the globe.
Mark Rothschild is a real estate analyst with Canadian-based Genuity Capital Markets.
MEXICO
By Angela Burriesci and
Philip Kibel
|
The U.S. and its neighbor to the north share something that the U.S. and its southern neighbor do not—an active and well-established REIT industry. While the U.S. and Canada have evolved REIT markets, Mexico's has yet to materialize. The legislation is in place, but despite encouraging market conditions the first Mexican REIT has yet to emerge.
Most commercial property in Mexico is privately owned by individuals or families. Most real estate developers are private companies, though some are publicly traded. Consorcio ARA, for example, is a publicly traded company developing several retail properties.
Mexico's largest commercial property sectors are industrial and office, and to a smaller degree lodging and retail. The main industrial centers are along the U.S./Mexican border and in the larger cities within Mexico (e.g., Mexico City and Guadalajara). The majority of office space is located in Mexico City and Monterrey, and each is divided into submarkets.
The Mexico City CBD submarket of Reforma is undergoing a government-supported revitalization project. There is little new development, but the revitalization is expected to help rental rates grow from their current $24 per square meter. Other submarkets are located near the financial center with stable rents and some new supply in Lomas Palmas. Major lodging and retail cities are found along the coasts—essentially in vacation/resort destinations such as Cancun, the area between Guadalajara and Acapulco, and Cabo San Lucas. Other important retail cities are Monterrey and Mexico City.
At year-end 2004 there were 30 retail properties under construction, 11 of which were in Mexico City and the surrounding metro area; seven of the 30 properties are considered “fashion malls” (as opposed to outlet, mixed use and entertainment), and command the highest rent per square meter, ranging between $3,500 to $5,000 per square meter.
| S N A P S H O T |
CAPITAL: Mexico City
LAND AREA: 1,923,040 sq km
POPULATION: 106.20 million (July 2005)
POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 1.17%
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP): $626.1 billion (2003)
GDP GROWTH RATE: 1.3%
GDP PER CAPITA: $6,230
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.2% (2004)
MAIN INDUSTRIES: Food and beverages, tobacco, chemicals, iron and steel, petroleum, mining, textiles, clothing, motor vehicles, consumer durables and tourism
CURRENCY: Mexican peso
LANGUAGES: Spanish, various Mayan, Nahuatl and other regional indigenous languages
Source: CIA's “The World Factbook” and the World Bank Group's “World Development
Indicators Database.”
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What's Next for Mexican REITs?
The Mexican government amended its tax laws in 2003 to enable REITs' creation. The structure would likely be similar to that of REITs in the U.S. The Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV), or stock exchange, has been actively involved in establishing the necessary regulations, such as funding and capital structure rules, to facilitate REITs' emergence.
Some differences in the Mexican REIT (or Fideicomisos de Infraestructura y Bienes Raíces (FIBRAs)) model as compared to the U.S. model are that there is no minimum dividend distribution requirement, no minimum number of shareholders required, and no restriction on how many individuals can own a certain percentage of the shares. In addition, a minimum of 70 percent of assets must be invested in real estate, compared to 75 percent in the U.S.
Upon creation, Mexican REITs will be publicly traded and listed on the BMV.
Angela Burriesci is an associate analyst and Philip Kibel is a senior vice president at Moody's Investors Service.